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Issue #499

The Importance of Big Dreams, Ending Dual Citizenship and How "Kidults" Saved the Toy Industry

The Non-Obvious Insights Newsletter · January 30, 2026

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What’s In This Issue?

Story 01

Why We Should Stop Celebrating When Big Dreams Fail

Why We Should Stop Celebrating When Big Dreams Fail

The grand vision of Neom -- the Saudi megacity that was going to change the future of how and where humans live-- is officially a failure. The project has shifted focus as the Saudi government has reportedly been downsized from the biggest grand city vision ever imagined to shifting focus to start as a giant hub for data centers instead. Some early critics are describing it as desperate and predictable. I don't really agree. Maybe the vision of Neom was never realistic. Building a city that could sustain itself in the middle of a desert for nine million people without cars, roads or emissions was one of the boldest visions of the future anyone has ever imagined and then tried to turn into reality. Clearly it was too ambitious. Celebrating its failure, though, encourages the world to dream smaller. We need big dreamers. Especially ones who have nearly unlimited funds. So the original vision of Neom may be dead, but I'm not celebrating that. I choose instead to celebrate the idealistic vision that contributed to even imagining it in the first place. I hope we keep space in our world for more of that.

Story 02

Ending Dual Citizenship Would Be A Disaster

Ending Dual Citizenship Would Be A Disaster

There is legislation under consideration by the U.S. administration right now to end the opportunity for dual citizenship in America. Citizens who hold multiple passports would be forced to choose which one they want. This is something I already lived through once. When I chose to become a US citizen in my teenage years, I had to renounce my Indian passport because of regulations from India. Later after living in Australia for five years, I chose to become a citizen there also. Now I have both. This is the sort of world I hope to live in, where people can have allegiance to more than one place and exist as global citizens. Forcing people to choose feels like the next step in building a culture where there can only be a single way of thinking or existing. Clearly I'm biased here, but I think ending dual citizenship would be a disaster. Some of you might disagree. Hit reply and let me know what you think. Should dual citizenship continue to be allowed either here in America or anywhere else in the world?

Story 03

How the Joy Factor and "Kidults" Are Saving the Toy Industry

How the Joy Factor and "Kidults" Are Saving the Toy Industry

The toy industry had a "bounce back year" according to Circana industry reports, with global sales climbing 7%. This follows three straight years of decline and is being credited largely to the growth of sales of games, puzzles, licensed toys and collectibles. The #1 property globally was Pokemon, followed by Hot Wheels, Marvel Universe, Barbie and Star Wars. A big driver of growth was also "kidults" (people over the age of 12) buying collectibles for nostalgic or collection reasons. This growth was also coming despite the effects of higher prices due to U.S. tariffs.

"The category's resurgence is linked to what Circana describes as the "Joy Factor," or the convergence of "entertainment, collectability, and emotional engagement." Among the toy category's underlying drivers are affordability, nostalgia, pop culture connections and advanced interactivity--as well as their ability to entertain, drive social connections, and provide a break from free time."

Story 04

Amazon Was Always Going to Shut Down All Their Go & Fresh Stores

Amazon announced on Tuesday that they are closing the majority of their physical grocery and retail stores and will be laying off 16,000 people. In past years, they opened and then quickly shuttered their bookstore concept stores too. In the broader context of their business, this was easily predictable. Each of these stores are essentially experiments to help them perfect technology that can then be licensed to others. Case in point - while Amazon shuts their own stores, more retail stores such as Hudson airport stores are being powered by Amazon's "Just Walk Out" automated stores. The most profitable business for Amazon over the past several years has not been their Prime membership or all the things they sell themselves. It's seller fees on their third party selling platforms plus profits on Amazon Web Services and the Cloud. The point is, Amazon makes a lot more money licensing technology or controlling the platform for sales than the profits on selling stuff that it ships to you. As we head into the coming year and beyond, look for Amazon to double down on more services and businesses like this and scale back on the things they themselves need to sell and carry.

The Non-Obvious Book of the Week: All the Cool Girls Get Fired

The ultimate girlfriends' guide to "letting go of being let go," the tone of this book is perfect for this moment in time when there are more people dealing with being laid off every day. Contrary to the title, the insights in this book aren't just for women ... though a lot of the book is very clearly written for people who fit the same category as the authors: white, female, executives working in a knowledge industry and generally sharing similar privilege. If you fit any of those categories, you'll find some useful insights here about how to recover from getting fired without letting that define you. That's probably the most powerful and useful thing about this book and that doesn't just apply to their narrow demographic. This book is a positive minded boost for anyone who is forced into the situation of redefining their career and considering starting their own thing as a result.

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